Aurora CFO says 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030 isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds

Aurora says it can deploy more than 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030, generating $5 billion in annual revenue, despite expecting only 200 trucks by the end of 2026. CFO David Maday argues the target is achievable because it remains small relative to the broader truck market, though investors have reacted skeptically and the stock has fallen.

Aurora’s plan hinges on shifting from owning and operating trucks to a driver-as-a-service model, which could scale faster if fleets are willing to buy autonomous trucks and pay for the software. The 2027 ramp will be a key test of whether autonomous trucking can move from controlled deployments to a commercially meaningful logistics platform.